Site Notice

I'm sorry that I'm going to have to announce again that the site will be moth-balled for an unknown amount of time, due to personal health issues cutting into the amount of time and effort I can spend on collating polling data.


My final thoughts on AV as we go into the campaign period, is that it's still too unclear to call it. Even after disappointing polling for the Yes campaign, they can't quite be counted out. It's now a matter of differential turnout, how the don't knows will split, and how many will not vote on the referendum even if they vote on their local elections. Such things are impossible to tell from the polling we have.

As for local and Westminster elections, it is now my belief that we are in a time of transition from one political landscape to a significantly altered new one. The polling data of recent times has had a slightly higher amount of 'outlyers' and somewhat pronounced differences due to methodology changes and variations. It may well be that we have back-slid in polling accuracy, due to changes in the electorate following the collapse of the Lib Dems that are not reflected in the representative shaping that polls use. Polling methodology can only ever really be tested by a new election, so it may be some time before we know if the poll firms have adjusted correctly to the new realities.

As such, it isn't that productive to keep producing a model, since the data being fed to it is suspect.

Best of wishes to all my readers.